Analysis: What Civil War 2.0 Looks Like

This article was reprinted with permission from Drew Pooters.

When you have to look at what is the most reasonable to happen, you have to face it – you cannot run from it.

In starting this simulation, I had to take a number of factors involved:
  • Population of cities right up to states.
  • Percentage of Red versus Blue from local to state (the voting tabulations of 2016 were an invaluable resource).
  • Which areas have higher crime rates versus those who do not.
  • Which areas have stricter gun laws versus areas that do not.
  • Which areas have the most drug trafficking/crime.
  • Which areas have the most to the least educated people (sites that highlight school districts for people moving there were an invaluable resource) .
  • Availability of police forces.
  • Military dispositions of both active duty and Guard/Reserve forces.
  • Where what bases have in terms of equipment and their locations (this plays into the political climate of the area as well).
  • The political groups involved and their goals, numerical strengths, organization strengths and weaknesses.
  • And finally (but not all) worldwide situations from adjacent borders to where the American presence is military and political.

Yes, this took time. LOTS of time – but a few months ago, when I was watching Ken Burns’ “The Civil War” – a number of elements struck me as being prevalent here today, in both quote and action. Hence this thought to see how it would potentially play out today.

The short version? It’ll be a helluva mess; it’ll make World War Two look like a barn dance.

The first actions, just like in the case of South Carolina, will be in California. In any search to find the people who want war the most, look for the place with the most nuts who would commit it, and view it a second “American Revolution” – albeit a Marxist one. Funny how the Southern slave owners wanted domination over others, just like these modern slave owners do and it’s an idea whose time needs to end, especially here. Just like in 1860, these folks love to silence, intimidate, assault, and if need be, murder to assert control over others. Representatives in Congress were physically attacked then and have been now. They blame the election of the president for it, like they did Lincoln, but just as Lincoln made it clear, so long as the Union stayed together, he would keep slavery (as he told Horace Greely) if need be. Here it’s almost the same thing: here Trump wants economic freedom for all, so that “all boats rise with a high tide” versus those who would use taxation and Marxist centralized control to both indoctrinate and keep a firm grip on people. Unless met with force, such an evil will not stop – evil never does until good finally has to use the same methods (war) to stop evil.

In my simulations of the forces involved in a Second American Civil War, most of the liberal cities would be blockaded and cut off from supply, turning them into “Little Beirut” all over, with factions fighting for what is left until there is nothing left. Most of the military would side with the President, and most of the “Deep State” would go into hiding rather quickly. The left will let loose their refugees and their minions to do mischief, but it won’t last long as regular civilians formed into militias and would reduce the impact of those rogue groups. Millennials from both red and blue would be fighting each other, and the 17 million vets would be quickly training average citizens who realize that their life is on the line into combat trained members. Of course, Mexico and the U.N. will try to take advantage of this situation, but the pent up anger at both by average Americans will eventually be their undoing; families will have great rifts, just as the first one, but unlike the those that hold fast to the traditional values, the liberal ones will for the most part, have no stomach for a fight – but I do expect some massacres of them as the fields of battle progress, just as they would commit cowardly ones of our own people (when the Waffen SS murdered unarmed prisoners during the Battle of the Bulge, our own troops made sure that those SS they captured did not live very long. I see that same thing happening here) – I’ll write more as it develops, but you can bet the death toll will be in the millions. When it was suggested that it was dumb to look into the effects of an internal Second Civil War, I felt the need to point out something that make some people uncomfortable, but as young Ben Shapiro has said, “facts don’t care about your feelings”: “While it may be “dumb” it is still a serious possibility, being pushed by both the left and the media. It’s time they know what they are asking for in whole. They only see their own myoptic hate, nothing more, like Southern “fire eaters” and Northern “radical abolitionists” did in 1860. The first thing is that everyone must accept that we are not immune from history repeating itself, and take it from there, which I have done. My simulation was based upon populations, military and National Guard allocations, “who has how many and of what”, trade and traffic routes, and places where particular groups operate. The military does the same simulations (of which the software is out there, by the way) to determine where one has weakness and one has strength, and overall outcomes that have a high probability of happening. You know, in the first part of the Civil War, they force retired General Sherman for insanity when he said it was going to be a long, drawn out, costly war of attrition taking years; events proved him right and the once-optimistic Federals brought him back. The very same elements then are present now, and should not be ignored for their impact.”

Did I take into account, for my simulations that a third actor would to take advantage of the situation of a second civil war? Yes. As it stood, with America effectively paralyzed and Balknanized, China would move against Taiwan, North Korea would move against South Korea, and depending upon how long it lasts, both would move against Japan. Over here we would see a mass migration from Mexico stretching from El Paso to San Diego (and maybe even more) the Antifa groups were wiped out by the La Raza groups with support from the Mexican cartels and military. It later ended up in serious house to house fighting. like Aleppo in Syria. Upon the Canadian border, it would be packed with liberal/socialistic refugees ejected from their enclaves (IF they survived the gang warfare and groups that demanded “compensation” for past ills that did not exist) and fairly well starved, as their inner city food supplies had been shut down for a time – resulting the Canadian government closing its borders to stop the flood – but unable to do so. Cuba would have its eye on Florida, but the Conservative alliance and the anti-Castro forces would keep them from making any successful landing, but they would take Puerto Rico.

Judson Phillips has some insights, like most people who delve into history, as to where things stand:

Since the election of 2016, the left has gone crazy. Their version of the tea party is called Resistance, and the spearhead of that is a loosely formed terrorist group called Antifa. Antifa is short for Anti-Fascist. The irony of their name is not lost on those who actually know history, as their tactics are straight from the fascist playbook. In the past few months, these groups have repeatedly disrupted peaceful pro-Trump rallies. They have called for and used violence against people who support the president or disagree with them and even against members of the media who will report things Antifa doesn’t want reported.

Just a few days ago, a woman associated with Antifa attacked a police horse, using a flagpole with nails extending from it. At the same incident in Pennsylvania, other Antifa terrorists had sharpened bamboo poles and baseball bats. Conservatives and those perceived to be conservatives have been attacked. The weapons have included glitter-filled gel, urine bombs, chains, bicycle locks and baseball bats. As their violence becomes more intense, it is now only a question of when, not if, someone will be killed.

Violence is not limited to pro-Trump rallies. The same Antifa group has made college campuses virtually no-go zones for conservatives. Noted conservatives such as Ann Coulter, Milo Yiannopoulos and Ben Shapiro cannot go onto many college campuses to speak without having their events disrupted to the point where they cannot go on. If this violence continues, the choices are not good. The left-wing academic establishment has quickly surrendered to these groups. They are allowed to riot on campus and even given relief from homework and exams so they can riot. Is there a solution short of a real, violent civil war in America?

California and Hawaii have recently announced that they would sign agreements with other nations so they could join the Paris climate change accord. Liberal states have this amazing ability to find things in the U.S. Constitution that people haven’t been able to find for over 200 years, but they ignore the plain language of the document that organizes the United States of America. At this point, is there any way that America can hold together as a single, united country?

When states are wanting to sign their own treaties with other nations and when one-half of the political spectrum in this nation wants to strip the other half of its rights and engage in violence against them, survival seems improbable. After Donald Trump was elected as president, the hashtag #Calexit started trending on social media. Members of the radical left pushed the idea of California leaving the United States. That idea was tried once before with less-than-great results, but maybe it is time for a peaceful solution that would allow California to leave the Union. There was a time when Americans, despite their differences, clearly identified as Americans above all else. That time has now passed.”

It’s an ugly truth we must now face and embrace – we have no choice, or were as bad as those liberals out there whose world is not based upon reality. Also, let us look at the bigger picture that will emerge as the United States become dissolved and are in conflict with each other:

1. There are always power plays exercised by the lesser nations who have been held in check by the major powers… Once the major powers are fully occupied, and then those minor ones will create their own invasion of whatever neighboring territories they can grab and hold.

2. The hard truth is that the Left doesn’t believe in the Founding tenets of this nation. They believe in Marxist tenets and will use ‘any means necessary’ to replace the Constitution as we know it. The ideologies are irreconcilable. The time has now passed for them to achieve their aims by peaceful means and they know it. Their anger and hate spurs In-your-face sedition, intimidation and incitement to violence on a daily basis. Traditional America will never knuckle under to Leftist tactics. And, so the battle is joined. It’s been a long time in making and from the early going it looks like it’s going to be one hell of a fight.

3. As far as Europe, our withdrawal of forces allowed the “migrant invasion” to turn into a full-fledged jihad; a badly run NATO would be hard pressed to be dropping bombs on itself. Turkey would move against Greece, and most of central Europe went Muslim via North Africa – elements (Christian, and any others who survived the onslaught) forced out moved East to Poland and Hungary, where they were aligned with the Russians for defense. Ukraine will become part of Russia yet again, as the U.S. supported government loses that support.

4. With our not being focused on the Middle East, Russia would take advantage of the power vacuum and take, by force, the Ukraine, solidify Syria by rather ruthless scorched earth policies, and Israel would align itself with Russia to keep the radical groups at bay (let’s face it, both hate the Muslims), and Saudi Arabia and Iran would go at each other, potentially with nuclear weapons. With both superpowers preoccupied with their own issues, it had a 77.9% chance of happening.

5. What about heavy military equipment? I took that into account – how much would be taken by the liberals and liberal military types, and it would be damn little. Anything left would be sabotaged or destroyed. Infrastructures destroyed by retreating or advancing forces would have a hard time being repaired, but Mike Rowe gives us a hint as to who would have the upper hand: the people who would repair the infrastructure to keep us in power and gas would be the ones who have trades and don’t burn American flags. With power outages all over, the liberals would have a hard time pumping gas, wouldn’t they? I take everyone’s own agenda into account, and the human nature to take advantage of a situation to get some benefits for themselves. That’s why the variables take hours to calculate. But so long as there might be truth to it, it must be reckoned with.

6. The urban areas that depend on rural areas would be the first to succumb. The chaos in densely populated areas will witness massive carnage and destruction. Food will be in short supply very quickly; there would also be extreme denial in many folks – just as the speed in which the improbable became the concrete existence in 1861, it’ll happen just as fast. But given how many conservatives realize the danger, the denial would be more on the liberal side, which denies reality in its total existence. In short, without the internet, snapchat, or Google – they will not meld into a coherent force very quickly. But how many can actively mobilize as a “force majure” … we will have NO communications, no network as they would be under attack. People who look to police forces are in for a rude awakening: by that time, most police would be looking out for themselves in such a crisis, and many of us do note that our forefathers did not have even the slightest of our organization – we would improvise, adapt and overcome, as most of the ex-military would be running the show; Seventeen million vets is a hard number to ignore, if the VA wasn’t so hell bent on killing all of them.

7. Most of the conservative thinking people would rally in various places, establish security and martial law rather quickly, and no doubt eliminate the criminal element that has been enabled for many years; the other side would recruit them.

8. The Eastern Seaboard will see the heaviest action right off the bat; with enclaves from Virginia on up, the southern states, fed up with the North, shall indeed rise yet again. New York is really very red outside of NYC – but that can be blockaded until it is starved into submission rather easily. Maryland and Delaware will see mass riots, and “ethnic cleansing” on a large scale until forces roll in and restore order, no doubt with martial law and many a quick summary execution of riot leaders.

9. The Western seaboard will be a long haul, as most of it does have ports for resupply and food production; with Oregon and Washington States the most vulnerable, a direct move through Washington to make a flanking attack on California will ensue and push down until it hits the northern part of California, where it is more conservative than liberal. Watch as the state gets split into two, like West Virginia was during the Civil war.

10. The Southwest will take the longest to reclaim; that’s just based upon numbers, and the fact that we are not willing to use nukes on our own soil in that regard. Swift armor tactics will help in some cases, like the breakout in Operation Cobra, but we don’t have really too many Patton’s out there.

11. Oh, and troubles from any ethnic groups that want to establish dominance over others will be dispatched over a one year period of time. They may cause as much as 3 to 1 casualty rates at first, but in the end, camps will be used to contain them and then deport them.

12. The time elapsed for this whole thing: five years, 3-9 months. However, in the end, we would be back to where George Washington wanted us to be in the first place – out of foreign affairs, tending home and binding the wounds, no doubt adding to the Constitution those things that people have wanted: no income tax, term limits, strengthening of the Second Amendment, and no doubt those items which enables the left to buy votes in the first place. Of course, many will refuse to sign an oath to pledge loyalty to the United States, unlike their Confederate ancestors, and will no doubt have to be deported if not jailed for expressing violent intents.

But as with all things, truth via facts and freedom will eventually reign – it’s a hallmark of history.

Todd adds: As you consider the above analysis, what would it mean for you?  Are you stuck in one of these “liberal” cities?  If you make it out, could you garden and raise your own food?  Can you defend yourself? Do you have the skills you might need?  Are you prepared?

This article first appeared on Ed That Matters.

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Todd Sepulveda

I'm the owner/editor of Prepper Website, a DAILY preparedness aggregator that links to the best preparedness articles on the internet. I'm also a public school administrator and a pastor. My personal blog is Ed That Matters, where I write about preparedness and from time to time, education. Connect with me on one of my social media outlets below.

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21 thoughts on “Analysis: What Civil War 2.0 Looks Like

  1. Mark Thompson

    Yes, insightful article. I live in the Great Lakes region (Michigan). Any chance you would do a follow-up that details what might happen in the regions the article doesn’t discuss in detail, such as Great Lakes, Midwest, Plains states? Michigan is a very purple state, particularly the southeastern corner (Metro Detroit), and that is concerning.

    1. Gino Schafer

      Detroit is a very BLUE area, as is Ann Arbor, Ypsi, and Dearborn (another story) Out state Michigan is very RED, Michigan taken in parts is not a purple state.

    2. Todd Sepulveda Post author


      I IM’d Drew on FB. His response is below…

      “Glad it stimulated debate! When it came to inner city areas, all order broke down, and the first victims were the white liberals – victims to the gangs and what I call, “the Gimme” group, who thinks that they are owed for slavery or any other poor excuse for their own failures. The outer areas tend to be more conservative, so once towns get organized, and link with other towns, then the beginning of an Army like that of George Washington starts to form (remember what happened to Boston at the very start? The British woke up to find themselves surrounded.) rapidly as word is spread (with the limited communications available), usage of CB radios will come back, and organization will increase as what supplies are marshaled (rail, road, ship) to begin a counteroffensive against Blue held areas. The process took time, about a 1 year period, as Blue cities within the vast sea of red, including Chicago, were driven out of existence.”


  2. Government Mule

    The problem with this is that it ignores Bible prophecy. The future of this planet as described in the Bible looks nothing like the description here.
    Yes, it’s wonderful to fantasize about using force to stop the leftist lies and agenda, but it ain’t gonna happen. The “civil war” the Bible describes is a violent persecution against Christians.

    Regarding world conflict, Ezekiel 38 and 39 outline a situation completely different than that depicted here. Briefly,

    – A coalition of nations led by Russia invades Israel from the north. These nations include Iran, Turkey, Libya and many others.
    – God himself fights against these nations and they fall in complete defeat on the mountains of Israel.
    – As the coalition falls in defeat, apparently an international nuclear war breaks out (Ezekiel 39:6).

    I too would love to see a “right vs left” American civil war, in which this country is cleansed of the disease of leftism. I just don’t see it in the pages of Bible prophecy.

    1. Todd Sepulveda Post author


      I’ve shared my views on Bible Prophecy before. Mainly, I don’t subscribe, at least very dogmatically, to one way of interpretation. I don’t want to be like the religious leaders of Jesus’ day. They believed the Messiah was going to come back a certain way and missed the Son of God right in front of their face! So with that being said, I do agree with what you’re saying. I believe that Christian’s are being persecuted big time right now. We don’t hear about it in other parts of the world because the MSM doesn’t talk about it. Christian’s are also being oppressed right here in America when their livelihoods are being taken away from them because they don’t want to bake a cake for a marriage they don’t believe in. But the biggest thing to point out is that most Bible Prophecy scholars don’t see America in End Times Prophecy. If that is the case, at some point, in some way, America has to be taken down. The above scenario, with all the chaos, is one way it can happen.

      Like I always say, even on the podcast, “stay prepped and aware.”


  3. OldIron

    I to have looked at it from the angle of the head and it agrees with you. My heart says yes this will happen because many millions of hearts are slowly working though the pain of the acceptance of war,just as a parent comes to grips with tough love.
    But but but my gut yes that inside voice says whoe Nelly and has been since Obama won his second term. I do not know what that means but the Clue’s mean they or them or what we used to call the shadow government or now the deep state is not ready.
    Ready for what my guess is it does not want a two front war and it does not want damaged to the energy sections and this means they think they can control us after. I am not sure they have the means to do it yet,but when we see a second layer of security cameras but do not need to be powered by the current grid the it is close.
    They undermined Reagan,the tea party,and now Trump supporters. The need to break that to stop any further organizational​ road blocks.

    1. Todd Sepulveda Post author


      Interesting. The energy to power a network of cameras all over the US would have to be very great. I don’t know if the technology exists already to do something like that yet. And, I kind of agree with Martin Armstrong when he says the people in power are not that smart. They have no clue what they’re doing.

      I’m keeping my eyes open. I’ll be looking out for new cameras too! 😉


  4. Tom Walker

    I think the military order of battle has been left out here or minimized. I don’t the US Military is just going to sit there while the civil war rages. National command authority will use the forces that are loyal (whoever is in power) and attempt to resolve the insurrection with direct military force. Even with large riots, national disasters we see the military deployed, usually the national guard. Remember we also have NorthCom now, a dedicated command structure for North America, obviously dedicated to conflict here at home. Continuity of Government plans have been made for many decades to respond to large scale civil unrest in addition to external threats. The impact on of military technology on lightly armed opponents is devastating. Don’t be fooled by the restrained application of force in our ME and Afgh campaigns. We could level the place and kill the populations very quickly with conventional Air/Land doctrine. In a fight to the death in a civil war, expect every weapon to be used. Some have speculated that nuclear weapons would not be used, I am not convinced, we have smaller tactical nukes that could be easily deployed with limited environmental impact. Civi war again is total war and a devastating strike with nukes would be attractive. Alternatively, I think the total war scenario is in fact very unlikely as the Statists probably realize they would be unlikely to prevail. Instead a more Argentina chaotic situation is a good model. Death squads, bombings, assassinations, significant disruptions to food, water and power, economic disruption. The usual stuff we preppers think about. That lukewarm war could go on for decades unfortunately. Somewhat grim, but we still a short period of time to make a life in a more sustainable location that hopefully will be less impacted no matter how the conflict develops. Southwest, get out now….Coastal areas, not good and I argue anything east of the Mississippi river is probably a non-starter. Our politics have gone tribal and of course tribes are in conflict……

  5. poorman

    You might be surprised at California and what would happen. northern California ( with the exception of the bay area) is mostly conservative and are already looking into splitting off from the liberal side. Google State of Jefferson. When you consider the fact that Nor Cal has the water,the crops and most of the farms they would probably have a civil war of their own which I think they would win handily when you look at the fact that you have people that mostly are in the rural areas and use guns,farm,fish and hunt on a regular basis against what in general would be a bunch of city folks that have problems living without their cell phones

  6. charlie

    A civil war as you describe would put this country back 25 years and the resulting hatred would last for generations. I hope this or a similiar scnario can be avoided but I have an uneasy feeling about the general state of the nation.

  7. Dr X

    The tRump folllowers are not smart enough to prevail in a civil war. After tRump takes away their healthcare they will be too sick to fight.

  8. TWP

    Overall your analysis is “reasonable” and this makes it more scary…

    One point, it was somewhat difficult to read and evaluate because of the large paragraph lengths…

    I will share this with other preppers and I hope they use it wisely rather than panicking and acting to quickly.

  9. Kendahl

    We know that the totalitarians hate the idea of free will. While the cat’s away, the mice (and rats) will play. Nothing new about either. What happens outside the borders of the lower forty eight states will have no immediate effect on us. Hawaii is irrelevant and Alaska will be on the conservative side.

    The Civil War was more like two adjacent countries fielding modern armies to fight a conventional war. The South was the strategic underdog. Brilliant tactics enabled them to hold their own but only until the North got its act together. The Spanish Civil War was a proxy war between Germany and Russia with the Spanish people for cannon fodder. Do you expect Russia or China to provide material support to violent American leftists like they did to North Vietnam?

    I think a second civil war would be more like the worst race riots expanded by a factor of ten to a hundred. In areas governed by Democrats, authorities would be unwilling to do what it takes to suppress them. Without state or federal reinforcements (which they wouldn’t want), they would be helpless, anyway. There would still be localized resistance like the Koreans who protected Korean interests during the Rodney King riots.

    Outside these areas, troublemakers would be few enough that local authorities, often backed up by private citizens, would be able to deal with them before they did significant damage. The worst attacks would come from organized groups of renegades. Since the leftists would be the underdogs, like the South during the Civil War, most of the renegades would be on that side.

    Within the riot areas, I don’t think it’s clear who would prevail. Residents who are not criminals have two enemies. The obvious one is the gangs. The other is the civil authorities. Kill the dealer who sold your kid the drugs on which he overdosed and the state will send you to prison probably for longer than the dealer had he been convicted. Freed from state interference, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the gangs’ former victims exact vigilante justice.

    I think you are exaggerating the breadth of infrastructure collapse. Pasadena didn’t lose power during the Watts and Rodney King riots. A bigger riot might get Pasadena and San Bernardino might have its own riot. However, I doubt that they would get to the rural areas away from the coast. If North Platte, Nebraska had trouble it would come from outsiders who traveled a long distance to get there. Few, if any, would have that much ambition.

    The biggest difference between today and the early 1860s is interdependence. Back then, local areas were self sufficient. That’s no longer true. A farmer in the middle of Nebraska, with thousands of acres in corn or soy beans can feed the world but can’t feed himself. If the computer in his tractor fails, he needs a new one from a distant factory to get it running again. If the riots expanded enough to take out technological support the rural areas now depend on, there would be a nationwide famine.

    If there is to be a civil war, as opposed to a breakdown in civilization, someone with serious resources will have to start it. A handful of students or professional agitators on a college campus or hard line conservatives occupying a BLM facility aren’t enough. The left is more likely to start something than are conservatives. Most of the latter have enough sense not to destroy their own homes even if society around them deteriorates. For a real war to start, there will have to be opposing sides, pushed beyond their limits, with rough parity in combat power. I don’t see anyone accumulating enough power to challenge the federal government.

    Rather than armed conflict, I foresee a gradual deterioration in society as the population shifts from conservative rural to leftist urban. We dodged the bullet last fall but, over the long term, momentum is against us. Two fundamental tenets of the leftists/socialists: (1) Private individuals should work toward common goals set forth by an elite leadership instead of their own personal goals. (2) Talented, energetic individuals should work hard to provide to the less talented and less energetic a higher standard of living than the latter are able or willing to achieve for themselves. (This is separate from taking care of those with real physical and/or mental disabilities.) Both tenets are a recipe for societal failure since they run counter to human nature. The leftists/socialists seem unable to accept this.

    1. nonblanche

      In my life I’ve gone from urban to suburban to rural, and I think your viewpoint is more accurate. The essay above seems to have a “too much information” problem, where it’s a lot more likely that the physical distances between “inner city urban” and “conservative rural” will make for more fragmentation than organization. Also not just CB radios (truckers who, frankly, depend on the interstate infrastructure of power and fuel) but ham radio operators, whose experience in organizing nets and equipment are more likely to keep functioning even in extended power loss.

  10. Jason

    Great Job on a very well researched and written article covering possible world wide events that are in no way far fetched.

    As I type the EU is also in a mess and my prediction is that the EU will implode within the next 5 years. Brexit is causing unrest in the Uk and there is already a petition for immediate exit from the EU. The french and German governments are not happy to ease the UK exit because they know they will have to pick up a bill they cant afford. Not to mention the fact they have their own far right party’s pushing for independence. Then there is the unrest in Catalonia.

    While we are on the subject of predictions , in my opinion almost 10 years have past and once again we are knocking at the door of a global recession. Add to this the fact that the majority of politicians world wide have lost touch with common man and common man has had enough of the same old story. When you restrict real peoples standard of living, freedom of speech and remove any sense of productive future , world wide civil unrest is a big possibility.

    One final point the news media, has anyone else noticed that they are no longer content to report just the facts, now they broadcast more speculation than real news, they even interview their own journalists to fuel the fire. Don’t underestimate the damage the news outlets are causing with their more often than not negative speculation.

    Rant over have a good one 🙂

  11. Jeff

    “Take away our healthcare?” You mean Obama care that has tripled, in some cases, insurance rates? You mean restore fiscal sanity to out of control medical cost? I say give me more Trump

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